Do not expect miracles in the short term

At other times, the evolution of the employment in the second quarter would have considered to be calamitous. But after the historic fall recorded in early 2009, the provisional statistics published Friday by Insee are good news. The France lost 74.100 positions in the market sectors between March and June, representing a decrease of 0.5 on three-month brings back the number of jobs employees 15,647 million. It is less than half of the first quarter where another "good" news, the fall of the salaried workforce has been slightly weaker that expected, leading Insee a revising provisional figures published in May (-168.400 instead of - 192.500).

The Prime Minister, François Fillon, failed to note "with satisfaction" the "contraction of salaried employment downturn" in a press release issued Friday. He adds that "this slowdown reflects both the resumption of activity observed during this period and the effects of the active policy of employment who has been engaged since the beginning of the crisis," adding that "the Government will intensify even these actions in the next months in fiscal stimulus that produces now fully its effects". But he also noted that the period "remains tense." For its part, the economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, has held, Friday in an interview with the "Figaro", that "as long as companies does not resume to invest, they do create not enough jobs." "Do not expect miracles in the short term."

has indicated yesterday, the Secretary of State for employment Laurent Wauquiez, in the "Sunday Journal".

A slight recovery

Indeed, several indicators encourage caution about the evolution of employment in the coming months. First, the number of destruction of positions in the second quarter remains in the same order as that found on the whole of the year 2008. In the space of a year, the French economy has destroyed more than 400,000 jobs, down to his level of mid-2006. Second reason for caution, "mitigating the decline is mainly attributable to the stabilization of interim employment", said Insee. The Statistical Institute has recorded a net loss of 16.200 temporary positions, 5 times less than the previous quarter, signs were probably the floor close and that this pool of staff cut is therefore running out too. The danger is that it overrides an acceleration of the deletions of sustainable employment. But, in this plan, the signs are not good. In the industry, bleeding observed since 2001 is amplified in the second quarter (-55,000 positions, or 6,000 more than in the previous quarter). As tertiary, even out of acting, he has lost jobs (6,000), while construction was created that 3 positions. In addition, taking into account the time required for a dismissal, a fortiori economic, it is likely that many social plans announced in recent months did not yet feel concrete effects. And that the companies that hire watch twice before recruiting permanent jobs. Signs of this phenomenon, the latest statistics from Acoss on prior statements to the hiring of course show a slight recovery ( 1) but they confirm the strong decline in hiring more of one month. They "reach their lowest level in the Decade, under the low point of 2003".

The result of the third quarter paid employment will thus be crucial. Insee had predicted in June that unemployment would increase 10 at the end of the year and the Unedic table on an increase in the number of unemployed approaching the 600,000.