The markets could themselves decide on parts

Cup football world succeeds in diverting their concerns of when market participants It is not clear. Operators might live the next few days at the rate of the programmed meetings, but the agenda is sufficiently loaded to bring stakeholders the economic reality and the dilemma of the Federal Reserve, which must arbitrate between growth and inflation. The institution seems to want to continue to favour the second risk, according to the recent statements of its members. "If inflation turns out from the top of our range of objective, I do not think that can be build on a simple slowdown in the economy to quickly bring inflation down", and warned the St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole last week.

In fact, investors who hoped to the end of the cycle of rate hikes, know more today on what foot dance. Last week was particularly difficult for the stock. A Wall Street, the Dow Jones dropped 3.16, with 6.45 withdrawal since the high of the month of May. The stock exchange of Paris, the CAC 40 lost a 3.86 index, is a downturn of 10.2 a month. And emerging markets have not remained immune to the movement, although instead. The MSCI index shows a negative balance of 20.

"Correction movements appear to lead to a return of awareness among international investors of the existence of the emerging risk," believe the experts of Crédit Agricole. All now is that if it entered a phase of disaffection and whether or not it will be strong. More generally, "the environment remains dominated by the fear to suffer a drain of liquidity", according to Credit Agricole. Last week, several central banks raised their interest rates (euro-zone, South Korea, South Africa, Turkey).

Lower readability after June

And the assumption that the Fed still continue started in June 2004 the rate hike is not reassuring. Market took into account the hypothesis of a recovery for the purpose of federal funds at the end, to 5.25. Then Antoine Brunet and Sophie Casanova, strategists at HSBC-CCF, the top of the cycle remains close. They plan to 5.50. But, "in a period where the readability has declined, it becomes dangerous to be too peremptory," they warn. In this context, "what frightens stock investors, is that, in the past, any cooling in the United States spread first to the rest of the G10 area, and then in the global economy", believe the two economists. But for them, the hypothesis of a crash is unlikely. Because, at the time where the Fed hardens tone, "the Japan and the euro area are very attentive to maintain tone in their economy. In addition, the results of the second quarter, which should be more than honourable, should calming investors. AGF Asset Management, despite a slight deceleration global growth and increased volatility, the prospects remain favourable to the equity markets.

For the Bank for international settlements, in its quarterly results to be published today and "Financial times" published this morning the findings, recent movement is not justified by the fundamentals, which have hardly changed since April. The key factor would be a lesser the investors appetite for risky assets. And policies are also reassuring. Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, found that the fall of the awards was a temporary correction after gains and not the result of structural changes in the global economy. His German counterpart, Peer Steinbrück, pointed to the outcome of the G8 this weekend that, despite the volatility in the markets, "world economic developments is considered very stable." "There is no reason to be skeptical."

The markets could themselves decide on parts. Wednesday, seems the price index for consumption for the month of may in the United States, followed Thursday by industrial production. The speakers will be also attentive to the speeches of members of the Fed, including Chairman, Ben Bernanke (now expressed), and the publication of the beige Wednesday book.