Because the disinflation draws to a close

Simple fire of straw or sustainable return of growth Since a few weeks, optimism is installed on the economic world. The advanced economic indicators surprise economists pleasantly, industrial production is recovering, that some countries, such as the Germany, the France and the Japan, showed positive economic growth in the second quarter. It was not needed to boost financial markets accustomed to the gloom since mid-2007. Having found colors in March, they are currently the highest on the year 2009. Another manifestation of the irrational exuberance of the markets or euphoria legitimate

For Véronique rich-Flores, who heads the economic studies at Société Générale, there is not that of irrationality in this reaction of enthusiasm. In light of violence unprecedented shock experienced by the global economy, "simple technical rebounds will lead to rapid economic adjustments which will surprise us positively." After months of destocking, companies have no choice but to get back to produce, when well even this would be lower than levels before the crisis. The automotive sector, doped by the stimulus plans including in emerging countries, also acts as a growth accelerator. Too aware of the importance of the support for this sector, the Governments will likely not remove from the day following their aid. Conclusion of Véronique rich-Flores: "We will know a few dramatic months."

"A surge of adrenaline".

But economists are unanimous in pointing the risks facing the global economy in the medium term. If Pierre Cailleteau, the Chief Economist of Moody's Agency, wants to market to "adrenalin at the time where the world discovered that after a major shock he is still living", point the finger at the issue of credit: will he leave The latest statistics from Europe are not reassuring on this point ("Les Echos" from August 28-29). However, without substantial recovery of credit, investment will not be able to restart and the private sector will not take the relay of growth.

Households, on the other hand, may no longer be in height. If their consumption has remarkably stood the storm in the first half, it is "largely through disinflation", noted Sylvain Broyer, who heads the economic studies at Natixis. The world has benefited from the decline of a barrel of crude, which has supported the purchasing power in a context where unemployment increased. But Véronique rich-Flores has calculated that "the purchasing power should reset the decline from the fourth quarter of 2009." Because the disinflation draws to a close. The coming months will see prices and unemployment rising reset. Consumption leaves not free.

Finally, the issue of public finance is probably the most difficult. States have invested 2.900 billion, or 5.3 per cent of global GDP, to support the activity. Few economists criticize this massive injection of money, so it was essential to prevent the collapse of the system. At least this scenario disaster has been avoided and this is "the real good news", said Sylvain Broyer. But his result is public debt soaring. Some countries, like China, have the margin in the matter, if the case of any of the major developed countries. Harder will be the adjustment. For Pierre Cailleteau, "this will make it even more essential reforms that developed countries are pushing for twenty years, such as pensions".

Between high unemployment and reduction in the margin of manoeuvre of States, the scenario that is not exciting. Still possibly a lifesaver: the dynamics of the major emerging countries. Must be noted that the rebound found in China, the Brazil and India "is committed to the revival of the automotive sector, which is itself quite inward and generates little trade flows," said Véronique rich-Flores. Conclusion of the latter: "the worst is behind us... but the hardest is front."