000 commercial Millennium in Aubervilliers

It will be a strange Mapic! "The atmosphere might be"bizarre "...Interviewed on the next market in the world of commercial real estate, the 15th Edition started yesterday and ends tomorrow at Cannes, exhibitors meet, most often by formulas for the unusual in the professional world. With a certain delicacy, as if they expected to see blood on the walls... "The great game will be to try to find out in behind-the-scenes what large sites in difficulty that could change hands", and anticipates an expert preferring to remain anonymous. One thing is already certain, there will be less world. Part of the open last year exhibition centre will be closed this year, because registrants. And among the companies that come when even some drastically reduced the surface of their booth. Finally, large signs does not move is.

"Last year, financial crisis, it was a game of liar poker", remembers Michel Pazoumian, General delegate of Procos, Federation of specialized trade some 230 signs. Since then, it is the economic crisis. With effect dominoes, its impact on the purchasing power of households. "The crisis of consumption, it is now, and it is particularly egregious since the month of June, with reductions in turnover between 8 and 14", said Christian Dubois, CEO of Cushman & Wakefield France, consulting in real estate business. Sufficiently significant declines to push signs to review their expansion plans. So, even if the trade remains the most dynamic real estate market', moderate Chris Igwe, Director of CB Richard Ellis Retail Department, "there is a revision of the initial profitability criteria.

Market demand

And if the new criteria are not met, after much finer performance studies, signs ask donors to review the terms and conditions, otherwise they are not close. It is sometimes a matter of survival. "Investors are facing a deterioration in the rental market", note the latest study by BNP Paribas Real Estate trade in France, with commercialization that decrease and the vacancy rate up. "The impacts are different, particularly affecting some sectors, including"number one"locations, with decreases in rents of the order of 5 to 15, or even up to 20", says Chris Igwe. "For the commercialization of new sets, can see rents signed on the basis of a decrease in around 10 between the displayed price and the price negotiated", said Christian Dubois.

In the opinion of most observers, it is thus passed a market of supply to market demand, in other words of a market controlled by the funders in a market where signs regained power. The idea for these is to capture client which will allow a faster ROI. So they are scalded by failures as the black cow in Montrouge, shore star in Strasbourg, the quiet time at Tours, the Blue Ribbon at Saint - Nazaire or Docks 76-Rouen. These centers before the crisis, are located in areas often eccentric. Indeed, it was the only way for developers to obtain permissions, elected officials are showing very mindful not to prejudice the existing equipment. The observation on the change of power, however, deserves to be nuanced. In France, the leaders of the malls, Klépierre and Unibail, remain consistent and maintain rental values. But they are more concerned than ever by the attractiveness of their centres and, therefore, "as in the good old days", very interested to have "locomotives".

Paris, entry door

Generally, commercial regional centres, especially if they are renovated, even expanded, stand better. "We are convinced that a mall is large, it is attractive, with this wide choice sought by the customer," explains Jean-Christophe Mouton, Director of operations at Hammerson. In the inner cities, at least in the larger cities, they remain dynamic. All - one of the positive factors of this crisis - many large international signs, Uniqlo to Apple through Abercrombie, again consider as carrying European market opportunities, with the hope of obtaining better conditions for entry. A true deposit and a boon to the beautiful commercial regional centres renovated as for Paris, or even some other major cities. Because few are signs as TK Maxx, a network of American ready-to-wear well established in Germany, or Jisk, a chain of Danish furniture, who decide to go on the market in regions, here here in the East of the France. For most, Paris remains the front door. Thus, for Apple, it would have been unthinkable to inaugurate its store of Montpellier, on 14 November in the new 45,000 m2Odysseum shopping centre, opened on 24 September, before the implementation of the Carrousel du Louvre, in Paris, by Icade a week earlier. Decided to move in the investment of shopping centres, Icade engage in 2011 the m2du pole 56.000 commercial Millennium, in Aubervilliers. Evidence of the still current dynamism of this sector.

However, even with interesting rental values, the "retail parks", in fact the areas of commercial activity, will be difficult to value. It is the analysis that appears to be the British land Hammerson, who gave two this year, one in Saint-Omer and the other in Saint-Malo. "We realized gains on pure real estate development that contribute to Treasury war of 900 million pounds in total 1 billion euros, Editor's note, including 600 million raised on markets, immediately available and usable to carry out acquisitions," details Jean-Christophe Mouton.

These "retail parks", designed more often at the top of this housing bubble repeatedly denounced by Procos, risk them problems. Unless they do combine both a good location - cement - according to the maxim which means that the three conditions for the success of a commercial equipment are location, location and location! - and a good "" marketing mix, either on a theme sports recreation, such as the Vital Park of Neydans, near Geneva, on behalf of the Swiss Migros Distributor, or a purely merchant theme.

Otherwise, "could attend and placed on the market of sales forced" anticipates Christian Dubois. The demonstration is relentless: the value of the assets declines, de facto, with a capitalization rate increasing, on the same rental value, while the marketing period extends. At the time, the "covenants" are likely to explode, and banks to be more and more nerve.