Once the crisis passed consumption is expected to take over from the investment

The crisis is China able to find new relays for growth The "Yes", I expect a fundamental mutation in the engines of the Chinese growth during and after the crisis. First of all, there is a reorientation of the engines of growth in demand and domestic investment, instead of external demand. Once the crisis passed, consumption is expected to take over from the investment. This phenomenon is explained by the fact that we are approaching the point of reversal of Lewis, which implies a reduction of the surplus labour in rural areas, a tendency to rise to the level of income of ordinary workers and, therefore, a reduction of inequalities between regions, categories of population and rural and urban areas, trends began to be seen before the crisis.

Evidenced by the fact that domestic consumption has not declined, including at the worst time of the crisis. Since there is unemployment, of ups and downs of the market of employment, and, as a corollary, a decline in income, particularly felt by the poorest categories, the consumption good is probably earlier (and already former) increase income.

Conclusion: when the recovery will be effective, will the Chinese economy display a more balanced profile in terms of engines of growth, not only as a result of trends in the long term namely, the economic impact due to the ageing of the population (shortage of labour, wages and loss of competitive advantage in the industries in labour-intensive in the coastal provinces) but also due to adjustments made to cope with the crisis. On the other hand, the efforts of the Government to provide a social safety net for rural and urban populations should contribute to this phenomenon of rebalancing.

That argues for a negative answer to the question, is that China will keep, I think, its industries to high concentration of labour, through a model of "flight of wild geese" said economic development at the national level. While labour-intensive industries in the coastal regions will see their competitive advantage declined as a result of the increase in wage costs, the Central and Western regions still have a reservoir of cheap labour which gives them a comparative advantage, which should contribute to a transfer of industries between regions.

If one looks at the rate of pay and productivity of work, it is clear that labour costs remain low in the Central and Western regions. They are thus in capacity to accommodate industries requiring an abundant workforce who are moving away from coastal areas. Under the effect of national strategies implemented in recent years to support the Central and Western, massive investment regions were allocated to these regions (and continue to them be allocated by the recovery plan), which has been a substantial improvement in transport infrastructure but also through investments in education which contribute to increase the attractiveness of these regions for investors. Conclusion: China will maintain a sustained growth for a decade still at least because of the considerable potential linked to the effect of size of the economy.

The answer is affirmative or negative, there are a number of obstacles: institutional barriers to the mobility of the workforce; preserve a sustainable ecological in terms of constraints on the growth of the physical economy but also on trade disputes that may occur with trading partners ; to promote the motivation and the creation of a mechanism to ensure the transition of a model of growth based on investment in favour of a model powered by the consumer; improve the political climate in the Central and Western regions so that they can maintain their competitive advantage in labour-intensive sectors.