So far all indicators are not at fixed beautiful

The context has changed. In 2002, the prospect of a former metallurgical worker, trade unionist Slayer of capitalaccess to the top of the ninth world power and economic power of Latin America, had panic financial markets.

Today, Lula economic policy over the past four years is shown in example by the international monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and the weight of the Brazil to the world Organization of commerce, has never been more important. Yet these are the classes the poor of the country that will renew it for four years in power, most sensitive to the visible effects of its social programs. This large gap may yet reach its limits.

Exceptional conditions

Of course, fiscal and monetary discipline strict that came to the fore the team Lula his arrival to power new increases of interest rates, primary (excluding debt) surplus of 4.25 per cent of GDP annually more strict than the recommendations of the IMF, has borne fruit, reassuring the financial community and by improving the fundamentals of the economy. Inflation was brought under control around 4 and, especially, "the external vulnerability of the country was heavily reduced through active management of the public, both internal and external debt", said the French economic mission. 50.3 Of the GDP last August, the public debt remains important, but significantly lower than its level in 2002 (62). On the external debt, it increased from 343 of exports in 2000 to 107 in 2005. The refund in advance of the IMF and the Paris Club was another strong signal to remediation.

Of course, the Brazil has benefited of an exceptional situation, worn by global growth strong and especially by the boom of raw materials, while the country became self-sufficient in oil skyrocketing oil. The boom in exports, including agribusiness thus revealed a trade surplus "which should still turn this year around 40-45 billion despite the real regular strengthening against the dollar", said Bernard Mencier, patron of the subsidiary Brazilian of BNP Paribas.

So far, all indicators are not at fixed beautiful. The level of the real hard penalizes a part of the industry. Growth, it remains disappointing compared to other emerging countries. 3.5, It was the lowest last year to Latin America with Haiti. For this year, the Central Bank has again revised its forecast down yesterday, from 4 to 3.5 in 2006. For its part, the Government has recently, him, to revise its projections of 4.5 to 4 and the Institute of economic research applied table on growth of 3.3 compared to 3.8, most analysts hoping no more than 3.

Call to a loosening

Not enough to fight more effectively against poverty and the reduction of inequalities. Many economists are calling for a monetary loosening stronger than that committed since September 2005 (which reduced rates at 14.75 per cent) to boost investment. "But it is unlikely that Lula changes course because it intends to exit the marking of the Brazil of"speculative"rank of rating in three years agencies", notes Carlos Quenan, an economist at Ixis CIB who feared, with the prospect of slower world growth, that the Brazil had missed his chance.