At best the Socialists does are credited to 21

Europe will be without doubt losing doubling on the evening of June 7. Its future was not discussed during an election campaign dominated by hexagonal concerns. And the French, like other peoples of the Union, should again show their disaffection for the European Parliament. According to TNS Sofres (1), 55 of voters say openly "focus little or not at all" in the June 7 poll. This indifference is youth (69 among the 25-34 years) and in the popular categories (72 for workers).

Such a lack of interest, for reasons discussed previously (2) likely led to a new record for forbearance for this type of poll. In its latest survey, the FIFG (3) the estimated at 63. Ipsos is slightly more optimistic. Voter apathy would be even more impressive as in 2004 (57.2 abstention).

This low turnout expected will reduce the political scope of the poll. No doubt that the losers Sunday night, will take argument to relativize their underperformance...

The Socialist Party is probably that which will wait with apprehension as the verdict of the voters. Voting sanction anti-Barroso or anti-Sarkozy to "social Europe" through the vote useful or effective, the main opposition party has continued to adjust his shot. The PS is the party that led a "bad campaign" for the largest number of voters: 52, according to an Ipsos survey (4), this view is even shared by a majority of 42 of Socialist supporters.

Subject to strong competition, the PS has seen to its voting intentions decline during the campaign, to be closer to dangerously close to the threshold of 20. The staging of his unit at the common meeting of Martine Aubry and Ségolène Royal, in Rezé (Loire-Atlantique) may 27, seems to have to halt this negative dynamics. The PS is swung back from 19 to 20 of the votes potential from the TNS Sofres Institute, which surveyed just before and just after the event. At best, the Socialists does are credited to 21.5 in the most favourable survey.

Conversely, they are environmentalists who led the best campaign, according to the survey of opinion cited above. The Unit conducted between various sensitivities of this movement is likely to be rewarded by the voters. Europe ecology lists tended to gain ground during the campaign eventually threaten to exceed the Modem, with 13.5 of the vote in the most generous investigation.

After have clearly made progress, movement of François Bayrou has settled at the end of campaign. Reduced to a range of 11 to 13 in the latest voting intentions, it simply rééditerait the performance of the UDF for five years.

The left of the PS, this is undoubtedly the left Front which is the beneficiary of the campaign. The alliance of the Party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (from 5 to 7 of the vote) and FCP almost caught the NPA of Olivier Besancenot (from 5 to 7).

The right of the UMP, the landscape has hardly budged. Alliance Libertas of Philippe de Villiers MPF and CPNT hunters remains credited for 4 to 6, while the FN has failed to back the slope (from 4 to 8 of the vote).

Is the UMP, which has continuously made head race this lacklustre campaign. The presidential party has also suffered some erosion of its vote because of the dispersion of votes. But the latest measures the range between 25 and 27 of votes. There is however nothing extraordinary for a party that controls the Executive and the legislature. And we bet that a battle of additions will take place Sunday night to challenge the "victory" of the UMP.